By any measure, the Pubs are in deep shit. Digby thinks it’s “mystifying”.
There’s a lot about the new Republican Party that’s mystifying. “Disarray” doesn’t even begin to describe it. I suppose it’s a lot like it was back in 1964, although I think even then you could see the outlines of a comeback — which they did, four short years later with the election of Nixon, the sainted Kennedy’s bete noir.
But this time, it’s really hard to see how they can ever build a sustainable majority when they are doing things like [voting overwhelmingly against confirming Sonia Sotomayor].
Um, they can’t, not really. About all they can do is insist as loudly as possible that the Dems are in trouble and pretend the GOP is therefore in the process of making a comeback even if they’re, you know, so NOT. Earlier this week Roy Edroso caught AEI’s Joel Kotkin making it up as he went along.
[T]he blue states appear to be continuing their decades-long meltdown. “Hope” may still sell among media pundits and café society, but the bad economy, increasingly now Obama’s, is causing serious pain to millions of ordinary people who happen to live in the left-leaning part of America.For example, while state and local budget crises have extended to some red states, the most severe fiscal and economic basket cases largely are concentrated in places such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, and, perhaps most vividly of all, California. The last three have among the highest unemployment rates in the country; all the aforementioned are deeply in debt and have been forced to impose employee cutbacks and higher taxes almost certain to blunt a strong recovery.
This is not the first time we’ve heard that this is now “the Obama Economy” and Kotkin isn’t the first establishment wingnut to have ignored facts in favor of wishful thinking.
To the surprising extent that it relies on long-term data — that “red-state strongholds such as the Dakotas, Idaho, Texas, Utah, and North Carolina, dominated the list of fastest-growing regions recently compiled for Forbes,” versus the “decades-long meltdown” of blue states — one might ask why this historic growth did not elect John McCain and a Republican Congress in 2008. Kotkin briefly mentions “the failure that stuck to Republicans in the wake of the Bush presidency,” but with becoming reticence doesn’t say anything more about it, except to predict the same thing happening to Democrats, presumably for the same reasons.
The future is unwritten and anything can happen, but if you’re going to mine demographics for electoral gold you might take a moment to consider why they failed you in the last test. Part of the reason, which Kotkin misses, is that the red state growth of which he speaks has not been limited to villages and hamlets, but largely occurred in and around cities, some of which grew less red in consequence. One of the fastest-growing urban areas in the U.S. in recent years is Raleigh-Cary, North Carolina in Wake County. Wake went mildly for Bush in 2004, but strongly for Obama in 2008 — enough to turn the state.
But then, selective memory is a Pub trait and lies are their standard communcation device. It has worked for them for quite some time but those days would appear to be over. Glenn Greenwald jabbed Politico for publishing yet another article claiming that the Dems are in deep political trouble a mere two days after MSNBC’s CQ Politics had published this slightly different analysis:
As they gear up for the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats appear secure in their House majority they won with a big gain in 2006 and reinforced with another advance in 2008. . .
CQ Politics’ election analysts found 100 congressional districts with races where either major party stands a chance of winning the seat. That includes three true tossup seats, many districts that are only slightly competitive and some highly competitive. . . .
The only three contests in which CQ Politics rates an advantage to the challenging party are all for seats now held by the Republicans and targeted by the Democrats…
(emphasis in the original)
Actually, as Digby says, “disarray” doesn’t do the GOP’s predicament justice. They are on the edge of falling into a political abyss so steep there may be no getting out of it. They are apparently going to wind up with a permanent base of less than 20% of the electorate, a major party with Third Party numbers. Politico’s fervent attempts to convince everyone that the GOP is on the edge of a major comback a la 1980 is the propagandistic equivalent of the way a short guy with no friends trash-talks the biggest bully on the block whenever the b’s back is turned.
As no one buys it then, no one is buying it from Politico or the RWNM. The sheer numbers are overwhelming. The Democratic party hasn’t had such a commanding lead since FDR in the middle of WW II, primarily because the Republican party hasn’t been this hated…well, ever. And, as Digby points out, far from opening up their Big Tent to those somewhat attuned to their viewpoint except not, you know, crazy, they’re shutting down, closing out all but the lonesome ideologues and militia survivalists disconnected enough to believe the birther nonsense and stupid enough to believe anything Jonah Goldberg says ever.
So why in the name of scientific polling and political survival are the Democrats following the tactics, policies, and strategies of losers as monumental as the GOP? The wartning signs are everywhere, particularly over healthcare, that the backlash if a bill is passed that doesn’t help consumers is likely going to be off the charts. I have predicted that if a bill passes that is of little help to consumers but much help to health insurance companies in preserving their obscene profits, the Dems could be as persona non grata as the Pubs. Atrios is going to enjoy it.
In 2010 voters will chuck out incumbents if the economy sucks and they don’t perceive they’ve been given what they were promised (health care). The “center” on health care involves giving people affordable quality health care, it does not involve preserving the obscene profits of the corrupt health insurance industry. If Democrats screw this up, those in Republican-leaning districts will lose their seats and I’ll be cheering on every bad Democrat loss.
He’s not the only one. The Democrats seem determined to capture the Republican base, blind to the cost of such a boneheaded move. They are pandering to people who command less than a third of the votes they do. Isn’t this supposed to be the other way around? Why are the Dems concentrating on the Pub base to the exclusion of their own? Why are they trying to seduce 20% of the population and telling the other 80% to take a long jump off a short pier, endangering the plurality they have – largely thanks to our hatred of the policies they now seem so determined to jam down our throats?
So what are we supposed to do if the Democrat party becomes just as crazy as the Republicans? Move to Tierra del Fuego?